China and India are the World's Next Superpowers - Can India Overtake?

chillibreeze writer — Deepti Abraham

“Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” may very well be the title of a movie made by so called Indian “experts” who are in perpetual state of denial and insists that India will be the next superpower. I may be categorized as a skeptic for saying that but the metaphorical dragon continues to grow defying all expectations where as India’s status as a major superpower remains a mere prediction.

Experts who are predicting India’s emancipation from poverty, starvation, bribery, and chronic lethargy to become the next superpower put forth the following arguments:

Education: Statistics show that for every university graduate in China, India has six.
Democratic form of government: Political liberalization leads to economic success. China’s Authoritarian regime shows short term results as seen in Germany in 1930s, Soviet Union in 1950s, Brazil in 1960s and of course China in 1990s. In the long run, democracy is the most economically successful form of government.
Rule of law: The rule of law is a fundamental cornerstone of any modern society. India has a legal system that has been in place for well over 100 years. This legal system is internationally respected and includes laws that protect intellectual as well as physical property. The rule of law creates predictability and stability that allows entrepreneurial behavior to flourish.

All the points stated above are valid but there are certain things that we need to acknowledge and start working on to truly emerge as a superpower. In fact, the following arguments work against India:

Education: As far as the level of literacy is concerned, China is quite close to complete literacy, especially among the youth, while India is still 30% illiterate.
Democratic form of government: Is our democracy really working for us? At best it can be described as an oligarchy. The only people who have made it work are the ones who have managed work around corruption, red-tapism, draconian government policies, and laughable civic amenities. It is an illusion that economic success requires political liberalization. China’s autocratic regime is sustaining growth for last 30 years which cannot be termed as a “short term” achievement. Studies show that low tax regimes and significant economic growth are more popular with masses even if it is not a democracy.
Rule of law: in areas like Intellectual Property Rights we do fare better than China but overall, anybody trying to set up industry in India has to go through burdensome bureaucratic hoops. We cannot deny the deep-rooted corruption that exists in India everywhere.

Although The World Bank said that India is expected to grow at a “slightly” faster pace than China in 2010, it’s still not time to rejoice. India needs to work on a plethora of issues before it can realistically overtake China. The Indian economy opened up 20 years after China’s and that may explains where it stands today in comparison to India. But when we say that we will take over China it does not imply that China will wait for us to catch up. China’s GDP has been growing at an average rate of close to 10% p.a for the last 30 years. On a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, it is already the second largest economy in the world.

Instead of obsessing over when we will take over China, we should try and learn from “The China Model”. Like China, we should acknowledge our weaknesses and try and identify strategies to overcome them. Our biggest problem right now is rapidly growing population - we may be able to turn population growth trend to our advantage, as long as we can improve the skill base. Most of our economy is still dependent on agriculture and yet it remains majorly inefficient. Our government spends huge amount of money subsidizing agriculture rather than investing in vital infrastructure. Economic reforms and better infrastructure could turn the tide in our favor.

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Chillibreeze's disclaimer: This is a contributed article and was published on Chillibreeze in May, 2010. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the views of Chillibreeze as a company. Chillibreeze has a strict anti-plagiarism policy. Please contact us to report any copyright issues related to this article. The relevance of the facts and figures cited (if any) could change after a period of time.

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—About our writer:

Deepti Jakhar Abraham is graduate from the reputed Sophia College, Ajmer and a Law graduate from Rajasthan University, Jaipur. She is a freelance journalist in the legal arena. She loves to take impromptu road trips and is a passionate baker.

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