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On Tuesday 1st June, 2010, there were cheers all round as the newspapers reported a GDP growth of 8.6% for the Jan-March quarter 2010, propelled by a growth in the manufacturing sector.The outlook for the future has been kept at a steady 8.5% although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, as he has expressed in several forums, is aiming for a 10% growth. While there could be debate on the relationship between the GDP growth and employment, opportunities for employment have inevitably risen up in several sectors during years when the economy has shown a growth. The most prominent among them is the services sector, which includes financial services, banking services, transportation services, media services and so on. Keeping the optimism intact, where then would be the jobs in the years to come? The outlook stated below has been culled from several reports of major manpower and employment firms, agencies and government bodies. These reports are themselves based on sample surveys of firms spread across sectors, views of HR personnel of top level hiring agencies, projections based on econometric models etc. The other indicators emanate from the estimates of expenditure to be made on different sectors by the government during the five year plans; the expansion/growth projections of the companies in different sectors and the historical trends outlined in research reports. Sectors wise indications IT and ITES This sector has been the front-runner in changing the very nature of employment in India during the past decade and half. From the staid 9 to 5 employment pattern, the predominant timing for work, the outsourced IT and ITES sector timing was a total transformation in the Indian economy. The sector has been a mainstay for employment during the last decade. The sector will continue to absorb a significant workforce although the processes would change. Nasscom predicts an addition of 2, 26,000 to the employment figures in the IT-BPO sector during the next few years. There will be a significant increase from the domestic companies and the government in availing the services of both voice based and non-voice based services. The e-governance initiative and the UID projects themselves would be great contributors in this respect. Manufacturing The next phase of growth is expected to come from the manufacturing sector. As per capita income shows a steady increase coupled with a wider distribution of income, the consumption of real goods is bound to go up. This, in turn, will boost the manufacturing sector. This is already visible in the increased contribution of the manufacturing sector to the GDP in the last two quarters (Oct-Nov 2009 and Jan-March 2010). The ASSOCHAM predicts a creation of 27.88 million additional jobs by 2015. This is also corroborated by the shift towards the skill training initiatives promoted by the government. HOSPITALITY AND TRAVEL With a growing number of Indians enjoying leave travel allowance in the private sector, the travel and tour industry has grown manifold. From plain vanilla sight-seeing, the travel industry has transformed itself to offer various types of package tours such as adventure tours, pilgrimage tours, cultural tours, corporate tours, wellness tours etc. The nature of jobs that the industry offers ranges from tour planners to logistic support providers. While the industry provides direct employment in hotels, restaurants, transport providers, tour operators, etc. it generates indirect employment to various types of vendors, specialized support services in adventure, wellness and religious rites and so on. The expected growth in employment for the year 2010-11 is 1, 37,000 as estimated by Ma Foi. MINING, REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION The growth of the manufacturing sector has close relationship with the mining sector too. The opening of mining activities to the private sector has resulted in industries in the manufacturing sector creating vertical linkages. The mining and quarrying sector is said to have registered a growth of 14% in the Jan-March quarter in 2010. As much of this is in the organized sector, it generates employment for those in the mining schools in addition to the unorganized sector employment. The years 2008 and 2009 were a kind of dampener to the housing construction industry during the recession. However, it has picked up once again with the shift towards budget houses by all big players in this sector. This growth has been augmented by a significant push in the infrastructure where the expenditure is estimated to be $1000 billion during the 12th plan (2012-17). Civil engineers, mechanical engineers, mining engineers, architects and urban town planners can expect direct employment while indirect employment both in the organized and unorganized sector can go up significantly. The ASSOCHAM has estimated the employment generation in construction to be 15.13 million by 2015. The year 2010-11 may see an addition of 1, 50,000 in these sector as per the Ma Foi estimates. SERVICES The sub-sectors to watch out are BFSI, Healthcare, Education, Training & Consultancy, Sales & Customer Relationship, Telecom and Airlines. As far as India is concerned, the recession has been relegated to the background. The lack of exposure to the global markets saved financial institutions in India from being hit by the recession significantly. Thus the time taken to bounce back was far less compared to their global counterparts . The benchmark Sensex did not take long to come back to the 16000 mark from a low of 8000 in 2008. The 3G spectrum roll out, government nod to increase fleet to private airlines and the establishment of National Skill Development Council have all contributed to the expectation of a rise in employment in the fields outlined above. The additional employment for the year 2010-11 estimated by Ma Foi is about 4,00,000.
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